Paper Titles in Periodical
International Letters of Social and Humanistic Sciences
Volume 49

Subscribe

Subscribe to our Newsletter and get informed about new publication regulary and special discounts for subscribers!

ILSHS > Volume 49 > The Determinants of Economic Growth in Iran Based...
The Determinants of Economic Growth in Iran Based on Bayesian Model Averaging
< Back to Volume

The Determinants of Economic Growth in Iran Based on Bayesian Model Averaging

Full Text PDF

Abstract:

This paper identifies the key determinants of economic growth in Iran, using annual time series data from 1974 to 2010. There is a very large literature on determinants of economic growth and several studies have included a large number of explanatory variables. Empirical models of economic growth are therefore plagued by problems of model uncertainty concerning the choice of explanatory variables and model specification. We utilize Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to resolve these model uncertainties. The results of this study indicate that the ratio of oil revenue to GDP is the most important variable affecting economic growth in the Iranian economy. Also the second and third effective variables on growth are respectively the ratio of imported capital and intermediate goods to GDP and labor force which lead to an increase in growth. Endogenous growth factors which are the factors contributing to the formation of human capital, not possess a large role in growth process. Therefore, the nature of Iran's economy has not endogenous and dynamic features and predominantly, economic growth has been made by injecting of exogenous sources (oil revenue, imported capital and intermediate goods, and labor force).

Info:

Periodical:
International Letters of Social and Humanistic Sciences (Volume 49)
Pages:
1-11
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18052/www.scipress.com/ILSHS.49.1
Citation:
M. Mehrara and S. Rezaei, "The Determinants of Economic Growth in Iran Based on Bayesian Model Averaging", International Letters of Social and Humanistic Sciences, Vol. 49, pp. 1-11, 2015
Online since:
March 2015
Authors:
Mohsen Mehrara, Sadeq Rezaei
Keywords:
Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), Economic Growth, Iranian Economy
Export:
RIS, BibTeX, Text
Distribution:
Open Access

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

References:

Aghion, P., E. Caroli, and C. Garcia-Penalosa, 1999, Inequality and Economic Growth: The Perspective of the New Growth Theories, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 37(4), pp.1615-60.

Barro, R. J, & Lee, J. W. (2000, April and August). International data on educational attainment: updates and implications. CID Working Paper No. 42. Center for International Development at Harvard University, Cambridge, MA.

Brock, W., Durlauf, S.N., 2001. Growth empirics and reality. World Bank Economic Review 15, 229_272.

Chandavarkar, A., 1992. Of finance and development: neglected and unsettled questions. World Development 22, 133-142.

Chuang, Yih-chyi (1998) Learning by Doing, the Technology Gap and Growth, International Economic Review, 39(3), 697-721.

Danilov, D., & Magnus, J. R. (2004). On the harm that ignoring pretesting can cause. Journal of Econometrics, 122(1), 27-46.

De Luca, G., & Magnus, J. R. (2011). Bayesian model averaging and weighted average least squares: Equivariance, stability, and numerical issues. Stata Journal, 11(4), 518.

Galor, O., and O. Moav, 2004, From Physical to Human Capital Accumulation: Inequality and the Process of Development, Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 71(4), pp.1001-26.

Kaldor, N., 1957, A Model of Economic Growth, The Economic Journal, Vol. 67(268), pp.591-624.

Khan, S.M., Senhadji, A.S., 2000. Financial Development and Economic Growth: An Overview. IMF Working Paper. International Monetary Fund, Washington.

Lazear, E.P., and S. Rosen, 1981, Rank-Order Tournaments as Optimum Labor Contracts, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 89(5), pp.841-64.

Lucas Jr., R.E., 1988. On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics 22, 3- 42.

Magnus, Jan . R, Powell, Owen & Prüfer, Patricia (2010). A Comparison Of Two Model Averaging Techniques With An Application To Growth Empirics. Journal of Econometrics 154: 139_153.

Mankiw, N.G., Romer, D., Weil, D.N., 1992. A contribution to the empirics of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics 107, 407_437.

Masanjala, W, Papageorgiou, C. (2008). Rough And Lonely Road To Prosperity: A Reexamination Of The Sources Of Growth In Africa Using Bayesian Model Averaging. Journal of Applied Econometrics 23, 671_682.

Moral-Benito, Enrique, (2010), Determinants of Economic Growth: A Bayesian Panel Data Approach, CEMFI Working Paper 0719.

Perotti, R., 1996, Growth, Income Distribution, and Democracy: What the Data Say, Journal of Economic Growth, Vol. 1(2), pp.149-87.

Phimphan thavong, Hatthachan. (2014) Determinants of Economic Growth in Laos. British Journal of Economics, Management & Trade 4(1): 35-49.

Raftery, A.E., (1995). Bayesian Model Selection In Social Research. Sociological Methodology 25, 111_163.

Robert J. Barro , Ination and Economic Growth, ANNALS OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE 14-1, 85-109 (2013).

Robinson, J., 1952. The Rate of Interests and Other Essays. Macmillan, London.

Rodrik, D., 1999, Where Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses, Journal of Economic Growth, Vol. 4(4), pp.385-412.

Sheather, S. (2009). A modern Approach to Regression with R, (Vol. 58), New York: Springer.

Wang, Yan & YAO, Yudong. (2003) Sources of China's economic growth 1952-1999: incorporating human capital accumulation, China Economic Review. No14, pp.32-52.

Christopoulosa, Dimitris K., Tsionas, Efthymios G., Financial development and economic growth: evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests, Journal of Development Economics 73 (2004).

Show More Hide