Using the Delphi Method in Forecasting Tourism Activity

Modrak, Vladimir; Bosun, Petre

doi:10.18052/www.scipress.com/ILSHS.25.66

ILSHS > ILSHS Volume 25 > Using the Delphi Method in Forecasting Tourism...

< Back to Volume

Using the Delphi Method in Forecasting Tourism Activity

Full Text PDF

Abstract:

Delphi method is used to obtain usually medium or long-term forecasts, which involves establishing a consensus from a panel of experts asked to make estimates about the evolution of the economical phenomenon. If it cannot be obtain the wished consensus, the opinions having a certain degree of divergence, it aims to reduce as much of this dispersion, without a direct influence on the panel of experts, using a framework in which their expert feedback drive to the conclusion of the study. Of course there are some advantages and disadvantages of this method and these are presented in the article content.

Info:

Periodical:

International Letters of Social and Humanistic Sciences (Volume 25)

Pages:

66-72

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18052/www.scipress.com/ILSHS.25.66

Citation:

V. Modrak and P. Bosun, "Using the Delphi Method in Forecasting Tourism Activity", International Letters of Social and Humanistic Sciences, Vol. 25, pp. 66-72, 2014

Online since:

March 2014

Authors:

Vladimir Modrak, Petre Bosun

Keywords:

Delphi Method, Economical Aspects, Image of a Country, Tourism Forecasting

Export:

RIS, BibTeX, Text

Distribution:

Open Access

This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

References:

G. Rowe, G. Wright, Journal of Forecasting 15 (1999) 353-375.

A. Borowski, International Letters of Social and Humanistic Sciences 11 (2014) 1-168.

B. Ritchie, P. Burns, C. Palmer (Eds. ) (2005). Tourism Research Methods. CAB International.

Ştefan Vlăduţescu, European Scientific Journal 9(32) (2013).

I. C. Dima, M. Man (2013). Budgeting and Management Control in Industrial Companies. Saarbrucken: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing.

M. G. Păun, International Letters of Social and Humanistic Sciences 6 (2014) 42-48.

G. Miller, Tourism Management 22 (2001) 351-361.

S. Hillar (2011). Moodle 2. 0 Multimedia Cookbook , Packt Publishing.

Alina Ţenescu (2009). Comunicare, sens, discurs. Craiova: Editura Universitaria.

G. Kibedi, Revue de Tourism 36 (1981) 3-6.

Ş. Vlăduţescu, E. M. Ciupercă (2013). Next Flood Level of Communication: Social Networks. Aachen: Shaker Verlag.

A. Borowski, International Letters of Social and Humanistic Sciences 3 (2013) 69- 74.

M. Siminică, A. Traistaru, International Journal of Education and Research 1(12) (2013).

Lis T., Bajdor P. (2013).

Ion Stavre (2012).

D. Ţâţu, R. Bărbulescu, Theoretical and Applied Economics 11(516) (supplement) (vol2) (2007) 189-192.

Ştefan Vlăduţescu (2013). What Kind of Communication Is Philosophy. Jokull.

Ioan Constantin Dima (2013). Organisational strategies - a systemic approach - on the example of the automotive industry. Saarbrucken: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing.

A. Borowski, International Letters of Social and Humanistic Sciences 4 (2013) 70-74.

Aurelia Traistaru, Elena Antoanela Cotoc (2013). Archiving, Keeping Records and Financial Accounting Documents. International.

I. C. Dima (2013). Industrial Production Management in Flexible Manufacturing Systems. IGI Global USA.

V. A. Enachescu, D. A. Hristache, C. E. Paicu, Review of Applied Socio-Economic Research 4(2) (2012) 93-96.

Aurelia Traistaru (2013). The components of economic record and the research object of Accounting. European.

Ioan Constantin Dima, Ştefan Vlăduţescu (2012). Persuasion elements used in logistical negotiation: Persuasive logistical negotiation. Saarbrucken: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing.

M. G. Mangra, E. A. Cotoc, A. Traistaru, Journal of Studies in Social Sciences 6(1) (2013).

A. Borowski, International Letters of Social and Humanistic Sciences 2 (2014) 110-121.

Dan Ionescu, International Letters of Social and Humanistic Sciences 12 (2014) 57-65.

Marioara Avram, Aurelia Traistaru, International Letters of Social and Humanistic Sciences 13 (2014) 79-88.

F. Smarandache, Ş. Vlăduţescu (2014). Neutrosophic Emergences and Incidences in Communication and Information. Saarbrucken: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing.

Janusz Grabara, Michal Kolcun, Sebastian Kot (2014). The Role of Information Systems in Transport Logistics. International.

Iulian Bitoleanu, International Letters of Social and Humanistic Sciences 9 (2014) 161-121.

I. C. Dima, M. Man, Ş. Vlăduţescu (2012). The Company's Logistic Activity in the Conditions of Current Globalisation. In H. Cuadra-Montiel (Ed. ), Globalization, Education and Management Agendas (pp.263-294). Rijeka: Intech.

F. Smarandache, Ş. Vlăduţescu, (2013). Communication vs. Information, a Neutrosophic Solution. Neutrosophic Sets and Systems.

Vladimir-Aurelian Enachescu, Journal of Community Positive Practices 13(2) (2013).

V. Dragotă, M. Dragotă, L. Obreja, L. Ţâţu, A. Ciobanu, A. Racşa (2005). Abordări practice în finanţele firmei. Editura Irecson, Bucureşti.

Byung-Kyu Lee, Wilbur F. LaPage (2003). Future Of The Korea National Parks: A Preliminary Delphi Study Of Key. Experts.

David R. Austin, Youngkhill Lee, Deborah A. Getz (2008). A Delphi Study of Trends in Special and Inclusive Recreation, Leisure/Loisir. 32: 163-182, 2008 Ontario Research Council on Leisure.

Ştefan Vlăduţescu (2014). Eight computational-communicative operations of building information. Mitteilungen Klosterneuburg.

Răzvan Bărbulescu, Romanian Economic Journal 13(36) (2010).

A. Borowski, International Letters of Social and Humanistic Sciences 6 (2013) 86-90.

Bianca Teodorescu, International Letters of Social and Humanistic Sciences 12 (2014) 73-78.

M. Dragotă, V. Dragotă, L. Ţâţu, D. Ţâţu, Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting 1 (2009) 76-93.

Ştefan Vlăduţescu (2013). Principle of the Irrepressible Emergence of the Message. Jokull.

O. Arhip (2012). Characteristics of Meta-Referential Discourse. Philologica Jassyensia.

Aurelia Traistaru, Jokull 63(9) 2013 125-135.

Ştefan Vlăduţescu, International Letters of Social and Humanistic Sciences 10(2) (2014) 100-106.

Garrod, B. (2003). Defining marine ecotourism: a Delphi study. Marine Ecotourism: Issues and Experiences, channel view. Publications, Clevedon.

Alexandra Iorgulescu, International Letters of Social and Humanistic Sciences 7 (2014) 14-21.

Jenny Briedenhann, Eugenia Wickens (2000). Combining Qualitative and Quantitative Research Methods. Buckinghamshire Chilterns University College, Wellesbourne Campus, United Kingdom. ( Received 19 March 2014; accepted 26 March 2014 ).

Show More Hide

Cited By:

[1] P. Kwok, H. Lau, "A Modified Consensus-Building Methodology for Reaching a Group Decision Using Minimum Costs", IEEE Access, Vol. 6, p. 3509, 2018

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2017.2787677

[2] G. Haim, R. Haim, Y. Shiftan , "Penetration and impact of advanced car technologies", MOJ Civil Engineering, Vol. 4, p. 175, 2018

DOI: https://doi.org/10.15406/mojce.2018.04.00117

[3] M. Kaviani, A. Karbassi Yazdi, L. Ocampo, S. Kusi-Sarpong, "An integrated grey-based multi-criteria decision-making approach for supplier evaluation and selection in the oil and gas industry", Kybernetes, 2019

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/K-05-2018-0265

[4] K. Taylor Rouse, E. Dougherty Horn, "Ethical remediation practices addressing values conflicts: A delphi study", Counselor Education and Supervision, 2022

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/ceas.12228

[5] K. Taylor Rouse, E. Doughty Horn, "Ethical remediation practices addressing values conflicts: A delphi study", Counselor Education and Supervision, 2022

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/ceas.12228

Show More Hide